如何用ggplot绘制FiveThirtyEight风格的球队概率热力图？

云原生阿岚

2026-8-3

实现FiveThirtyEight风格的球队概率热力图（ggplot版）

问题描述

现有包含球队名称、积分、前两名晋级概率（İlk_iki）、季后赛概率（Playoff）、降级概率（Küme_Düşme）的数据集，需用ggplot绘制类似FiveThirtyEight风格的热力图，展示各球队不同晋级/降级概率的分布。

数据集

df <- structure(list(Team = c("Eyupspor", "Samsunspor", "Keciorengucu", 
"Bodrumspor", "Bandirmaspor", "Pendikspor", "Boluspor", "Rizespor", 
"Sakaryaspor", "Goztepe", "Manisa", "Adanaspor", "Altay", "Tuzlaspor", 
"Erzurumspor", "Altinordu", "Malatyaspor", "Denizlispor", "Genclerbirligi"
), Points = c(41, 38, 36, 35, 34, 34, 33, 31, 31, 28, 28, 22, 
19, 19, 18, 16, 13, 12, 10), İlk_iki = c(0.666, 0.592, 0.211, 
0.161, 0.126, 0.169, 0.012, 0.052, 0.008, 0, 0.002, NA, NA, NA, 
NA, NA, NA, NA, NA), Playoff = c(0.996, 0.988, 0.908, 0.875, 
0.818, 0.881, 0.388, 0.694, 0.261, 0.061, 0.126, 0.004, 0, 0, 
0, NA, NA, NA, NA), Küme_Düşme = c(NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, NA, 0.024, 0.093, 0.163, 0.228, 0.751, 0.865, 0.907, 0.969)), row.names = c(NA, 19L), class = "data.frame")

解决方案

要实现目标，需完成数据整理和ggplot绘图两个核心步骤，同时借助ggthemes包实现FiveThirtyEight的风格：

1. 加载依赖包

library(tidyverse)
library(scales)
library(ggthemes)

2. 数据预处理

将宽格式数据转为长格式，按积分从高到低排序球队，并把概率转为百分比格式：

df_long <- df %>%
  # 按积分降序排序球队，确保热力图从上到下积分递减
  arrange(desc(Points)) %>%
  mutate(Team = factor(Team, levels = Team)) %>%
  # 转长格式，提取概率类型和对应数值
  pivot_longer(cols = c(İlk_iki, Playoff, Küme_Düşme),
               names_to = "Prob_Type",
               values_to = "Probability") %>%
  # 过滤NA值，仅保留有效概率数据
  filter(!is.na(Probability)) %>%
  # 概率转百分比，保留1位小数，用于文本显示
  mutate(Prob_Pct = percent(Probability, accuracy = 0.1))

3. 绘制FiveThirtyEight风格热力图

ggplot(df_long, aes(x = Prob_Type, y = Team)) +
  # 绘制热力图色块，调整边框和透明度
  geom_tile(aes(fill = Probability), color = "white", alpha = 0.8) +
  # 在色块上显示百分比文本
  geom_text(aes(label = Prob_Pct), color = "black", size = 3.5) +
  # 设置颜色渐变：低概率浅蓝，高概率深红（匹配FiveThirtyEight风格）
  scale_fill_gradient(low = "#cce7f5", high = "#e31a1c", limits = c(0,1)) +
  # 应用FiveThirtyEight主题
  theme_fivethirtyeight() +
  # 自定义坐标轴标签和标题
  labs(title = "球队晋级/降级概率热力图",
       x = "概率类型",
       y = "球队",
       fill = "概率") +
  # 调整坐标轴文本方向和主题细节
  theme(axis.text.y = element_text(size = 10),
        axis.text.x = element_text(size = 11),
        plot.title = element_text(size = 14, face = "bold"),
        legend.position = "bottom")

效果说明

球队按积分从高到下排列，符合联赛排名逻辑
色块颜色深浅对应概率高低，直观展示各球队不同场景的概率分布
文本直接标注百分比，避免用户额外换算
整体风格匹配FiveThirtyEight的简约、信息优先设计

内容的提问来源于stack exchange，提问作者Emre Toros