光伏面板能量与收益预测模型电池模块收益偏差修复咨询

我正在开发一款光伏面板能量与收益预测模型，目前计算得出的收益与实际收益存在偏差，问题出在电池模块部分。电池容量为14 kWh，该模块用于应对光伏面板无法满足家庭能耗需求（home_energy_use_kWh）的时段。已尝试多种解决方法但均无效，可提供完整代码和数据表，恳请协助解决。

当前电池模块代码 #

%% Calculate the amount of energy in the system's battery in each time step
for i = 2:length(timesteps)
    excess_energy_kWh = E(i) - home_energy_use_kWh(i); % Calculate excess energy
    if excess_energy_kWh > 0 % If excess energy is produced
        battery_energy_kWh(i) = min(battery_energy_kWh(i-1) + excess_energy_kWh, battery_capacity_kWh); % Charge battery
    else % If energy deficit
        battery_energy_kWh(i) = max(battery_energy_kWh(i-1) + excess_energy_kWh, 0); % Discharge battery
        purchase_from_grid_kWh(i) = -excess_energy_kWh; % Record grid purchase
    end
end
%% Calculate how much energy you will need to get from the energy company
total_purchase_from_grid_kWh = sum(purchase_from_grid_kWh);

% Calculate how much money you would save over the hypothetical period
total_savings_with_solar_USD = total_purchase_from_grid_kWh * price_per_kWh_USD;

% Calculate how much money you would save if you didn't use solar panels
energy_from_company_kWh = sum(home_energy_use_kWh);
% Use price_per_kWh_USD
savings_without_solar_USD = energy_from_company_kWh * price_per_kWh_USD;

核心问题分析 #

1. 放电逻辑错误：当前代码未考虑电池剩余电量是否能覆盖全部能量缺口，直接将所有缺口计入电网购电量，导致购电量计算偏大，收益偏差。
2. 初始状态缺失：battery_energy_kWh(1)的初始值未定义，会导致后续所有电量计算结果异常。
3. 收益计算逻辑颠倒：total_savings_with_solar_USD的计算逻辑错误，应为「无光伏时的总电费 - 有光伏时的总电费」，而非购电量直接乘电价。
4. 未考虑充放电效率：实际电池充放电存在能量损耗，当前代码未加入效率系数，导致电量预测与实际不符。

修正后的代码示例 #

%% 初始化参数
battery_capacity_kWh = 14;
battery_energy_kWh(1) = 0; % 设置初始电池电量（根据实际情况调整，比如满电或剩余电量）
charge_efficiency = 0.95; % 电池充电效率
discharge_efficiency = 0.95; % 电池放电效率

%% 计算每个时间步的电池电量与电网购电量
for i = 2:length(timesteps)
    excess_energy_kWh = E(i) - home_energy_use_kWh(i); % 计算过剩/缺口能量
    
    if excess_energy_kWh > 0 % 有过剩能量，给电池充电
        charge_amount = excess_energy_kWh * charge_efficiency;
        battery_energy_kWh(i) = min(battery_energy_kWh(i-1) + charge_amount, battery_capacity_kWh);
        purchase_from_grid_kWh(i) = 0;
    else % 存在能量缺口，优先用电池放电
        deficit = -excess_energy_kWh;
        % 电池可放出的最大有效电量（考虑放电损耗）
        max_available_discharge = battery_energy_kWh(i-1) / discharge_efficiency;
        
        if max_available_discharge >= deficit
            % 电池电量足够覆盖缺口，无需购电
            battery_energy_kWh(i) = battery_energy_kWh(i-1) - deficit * discharge_efficiency;
            purchase_from_grid_kWh(i) = 0;
        else
            % 电池放电至0，剩余缺口从电网购买
            battery_energy_kWh(i) = 0;
            purchase_from_grid_kWh(i) = deficit - max_available_discharge;
        end
    end
end

%% 计算实际收益与节省金额
total_purchase_from_grid_kWh = sum(purchase_from_grid_kWh);
energy_from_company_kWh = sum(home_energy_use_kWh);
price_per_kWh_USD = ...; % 填入实际电价

% 无光伏系统时的总电费
cost_without_solar_USD = energy_from_company_kWh * price_per_kWh_USD;
% 有光伏系统时的总电费
cost_with_solar_USD = total_purchase_from_grid_kWh * price_per_kWh_USD;
% 实际节省金额
total_savings_with_solar_USD = cost_without_solar_USD - cost_with_solar_USD;

内容的提问来源于stack exchange，提问作者Crash