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关于Expected utility框架下风险偏好与Lottery选择的疑问咨询

关于Expected utility框架下风险偏好与Lottery选择的疑问咨询

(注:原题附带对应图示,但未提供截图)

The figure below describes John's preferences over lotteries for three prizes- $1, $2, and $3, where p1 is the probability of winning $1, and p3 is the probability of winning $3. Assume that John is an expected utility maximizer.

a) Is John risk averse?

b) Suppose it is additionally known that John prefers a lottery that pays $2 with probability 1/2 and $3 with probability 1/2 to a certain payment of $2.50. Which of the following two lotteries will John prefer? Explain briefly.

  • Lottery A: A payment of $2 with probability 1.
  • Lottery B: A lottery that pays $2.50 with probability 0.35 and $1 with probability 0.65.

我实在搞不懂这个问题,一开始我算了期望效用。根据题目里的描述,因为John偏好那个50%概率得$2、50%概率得$3的彩票,而不是确定的$2.50,那他肯定是风险偏好型的对吧?

不过当我计算Lottery A和Lottery B的期望效用时,算出来A的EU是2,B的是1.525,这时候我就不知道该怎么下结论了。他虽然是风险爱好者,但Lottery B的期望效用反而比A低,那他应该不会选B吧?我觉得正确答案应该是他会选Lottery A,这个判断对吗?

备注:内容来源于stack exchange,提问作者Disintegrators

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最近更新时间:2026.04.23 07:09:11